Predicting The Dublin Central By-Election
We’re now less than 24 hours away from ballot boxes being poured out onto tables in the RDS and despite all the debate, conjecture and analysis - we’re still no clearer on who might actually win this contest.
Rather than add another opinion to the cauldron, I thought I’d take a different approach and seek to estimate the outcome based on the opinion polling we have for this race combined with historical transfer data.
It goes without saying that these results should be taken with a huge health warning as the poll is now more than two weeks old, had a 4% MoE at the time of publication and many voters may have simply switched their vote in the meantime.
Added to this, historical transfer data isn’t a perfect measure for predicting what will happen as it can’t factor in exactly how geography or particular candidate strength will affect things this time but it’s as good as we have at this juncture.
For the purposes of this exercise, I will be ignoring the five candidates polling at 1% or less as the figures are so small as to be immaterial to the outcome unless we’re in recount territory. I will attempt to use historical transfer patterns where possible (if not possible, a guesstimate) and will not transfer any amounts lower than 0.1%.
Without further ado, let’s get into it.
Dublin Central;
The results of the IPSOS/B&A poll for The Irish Times/TG4 was as follows:
Boylan - 21%
Ennis - 18%
Hutch - 14%
McAdam - 13%
Horner - 8%
Steenson - 7%
O’Dea - 6%
Stephens - 4%
Ó’Ceannabháin - 3%
All others - 1% or less.
We will now proceed with the elimination of Eoghan Ó’Ceannabháin and distribute his transfers based on how his transfers went in the 2024 GE in Dublin Central and how PBP transfers in Dublin historically go.
Count 2;
Boylan - 21% + 0.66% = 21.66%
Ennis - 18% + 1.1% = 19.1%
Hutch - 14% + 0.12 = 14.12% g
McAdam - 13%
Horner - 8% + 0.3% = 8.3%
Steenson - 7%
O’Dea - 6% + 0.36% = 6.36%
Stephens - 4%
We will now proceed with the elimination of John Stephens and distribute his transfers based on how FF’s transfers went in both the 2020 and 2024 GE in Dublin Central.
Count 3;
Boylan - 21.66%
Ennis - 19.1% + 0.54% = 19.64%
McAdam - 13% + 1.99% = 14.99%
Hutch - 14.12% + 0.17% = 14.29%
Horner - 8.3% + 0.7% = 9%
Steenson - 7%
O’Dea - 6.36% + 0.6% = 6.96%
We will now proceed with the elimination of Ruth O’Dea and distribute her transfers based on how LAB’s transfers went in the 2020 GE in Dublin Central.
Count 4;
Boylan - 21.66% + 0.42% = 22.08%
Ennis - 19.64% + 1.7% = 21.34%
McAdam - 14.99% + 1.02% = 16.01%
Hutch - 14.29%
Horner - 9% + 1.67% = 10.67%
Steenson - 7%
We will now proceed with the elimination of Malachy Steenson and distribute his transfers based on how his transfers went in the 2024 GE in Dublin Central, plus a guesstimate for the SF figure.
Count 5;
Boylan - 22.08% + 1% = 23.08%
Ennis - 21.34% + 0.56% = 21.90%
Hutch - 14.29% + 4% = 18.29%
McAdam - 16.01% + 0.42% = 16.43%
Horner - 10.67%
We will now proceed with the elimination of Janet Horner and distribute her transfers based on how GP transfers went in the 2024 GE in Dublin Central.
Count 6;
Ennis - 21.90% + 4.27% = 26.17%
Boylan - 23.08% + 0.55% = 25.63%
Hutch - 18.29% + 0.12% = 18.41%
McAdam - 16.43% + 1.38% = 17.81%
At this point, we should eliminate Ray McAdam. However, there is no historical data in Dublin Central of FG transfers being split between SF and SD’s. The best comparison I can find is from Dublin Bay South in the 2024 GE where transfers from Emma Blain’s surplus ultimately split 8-1 in favour of the SocDems over SF.
If anything even resembling that split occurs, Daniel Ennis would have an unassailable lead over Janice Boylan as she would require roughly a 9-1 split from Gerry Hutch’s transfers. However, data from the IPSOS/B&A poll shows Boylan receiving just 25% of Hutch transfers (this of course was with Steenson still in the field) but we would expect at least some of Hutch’s transfers to also end up in Ennis’s pile making it statistically impossible for Boylan to overhaul him.
In short, McAdam’s transfers would elect Ennis.
I hope you enjoyed reading.